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Date Published: 13/12/2024

Aemet predicts the weather in Spain this winter after torrential autumn

This winter is expected to be warmer and with less rainfall than usual throughout Spain

The winter, which officially begins on December 21 at 10.21am, is predicted to be mild in temperature and with less rainfall than usual. This prediction follows an autumn which has seen the seventh highest amount of rainfall of the 21st century, and the 20th highest since1961.

Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet), has stated that it has become natural to predict that each season is warmer than the one that came the year before.

Aemet has therefore attempted to predict the weather for this coming winter, stating that it is likely that the temperatures will be higher than usual throughout the whole of Spain, but that the northwest and south of the country will see the largest climb in temperatures over the next three months.

As for rainfall, the most likely scenario is a 40-50% chance of a winter with less rain than usual, although "the uncertainties in the forecast are very high." For the eastern end of the country and the Balearic Islands, there is no clear trend in the climatological data.

Moreover, according to the Aemet records, the autumn that has just passed was very warm, with an average temperature in mainland Spain of 15.5°C. This temperature reading has a value that is 1.1°C above the average for the season. It was, however, not the hottest to be recorded in the last 24 years. In fact, it was only the sixth warmest of the 21st century.

Nevertheless, autumn was very warm in the Region of Murcia, Valencia and on the Andalucian coast. It was also very warm in the Balearic Islands, while in the Canary Islands it varied from one area to another, resulting in a very warm overall result.

In terms of rainfall, the autumn of 2024 was wet in most parts of the country, with an average precipitation over mainland Spain of 236.5 mm. This number presents a 118% increase over the normal value for the quarter in the reference period 1991-2020.

Specifically, the autumn was very wet in a large part of the northeastern quadrant of the peninsula, as well as in Cadiz, Huelva and some other points inland on the Peninsula and in Galicia.

Finally, Aemet highlights the "extraordinary episode of very intense rainfall that affected the Mediterranean area of the eastern peninsula" on October 29, as well as the torrential rain felt on the Mediterranean coast during the beginning of November.

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