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Spanish households have been hit with another steep rise in energy costs, even though the month has been unseasonably warm. Electricity prices in October climbed by 40% compared to September, and energy experts warn that further increases can’t be ruled out.

 

This latest price spike comes amid ongoing concerns about whether renewable energy can make up for the planned closure of Spain’s nuclear power plants.

 

The consultancy Tempos Energía says this jump isn’t because of the recent mild weather, but because of changes within the energy system and market expectations for winter. Shorter days and weaker winds have meant less solar and wind power feeding the grid, leading to fewer hours of low-cost electricity. At the same time, markets are already factoring in what could happen if gas supplies tighten once winter demand rises.

 

According to Tempos Energía’s CEO, Antonio Aceituno, the gas market is showing a rare moment of balance. “In the best-case scenario, that equilibrium would help keep prices stable,” he explained. “If the winter stays mild and liquefied gas continues to flow normally, electricity prices could remain contained.” In that case, the first quarter of 2026 could see electricity average between 78 and 82 euros per megawatt hour, about 5% less than the same period last year.

 

However, that stability is far from guaranteed. Aceituno warns that a cold winter, disturbances in gas supply, or new geopolitical tensions could quickly upset the balance. “The system is stable, but it’s not protected,” he said. Should things turn colder, prices could rise again to between 85 and 90 euros per megawatt hour early next year - an increase of around 4.6%.

 

In October, the wholesale electricity price reached an average of 84.73 euros per megawatt hour, nearly 39% higher than in September. That jump covers both peak and off-peak hours, meaning it’s being felt on electricity bills across the board.

 

Meanwhile, gas prices have stayed relatively steady. The TTF spot rate averaged 32.09 euros per megawatt hour in October, its lowest point since 2020, thanks to moderate temperatures and more liquefied natural gas reaching Europe. But analysts say that calm remains fragile. Stronger demand from Asia or shipping delays could quickly disrupt supplies and drive prices higher again.

 

For now, the mild autumn weather is helping to keep some of those pressures in check. If Europe manages to avoid an especially cold winter, electricity prices might ease slightly in the new year. But if conditions worsen or gas deliveries are interrupted, household bills could soon find themselves on another steep climb.

 

 

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